Playing by numbers

The statisticians are at the gate. But can numbers ever make sense of something as fluid as football?

By Ed Smith

Ten years ago, walking past the Harvard bookstore, I saw a billboard inviting me to discover "What happens when sport is exposed to the scientific method". It was an advert for a book that was going to become famous: Michael Lewis's "Moneyball".

I was spending a semester at Harvard—right in the middle of my cricket career, as it turned out, though the number of grains of sand left in the egg-timer is never clear at the time. I stopped in my tracks in the November snow. That science could revolutionise sport: the idea was thrilling, and also troubling.

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